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供应链的噩梦

供应商的噩梦? 不要惊慌——为明天做计划.

2021年10月14日

汤姆·戈登CPIM-F

Two questions are fighting each other in the nightmares of supply management: – “When will this craziness end? 以及“我们如何为改变做好准备??”

There is a fact that must be faced – the old ‘normality’ will not be the new ‘normal’. 

这有一些非常好的理由.  A major reason is the growing instability in the Chinese relationship.  President Xi Jinping is determined to cement his regime into Chinese history books.  “习近平思想”的指导原则是—— [1] 以及统一台湾的决心, 有效地, 破坏与西方供应链的任何程度的合作.  [2]  Recent studies in the total cost of ownership have revealed the fact that it is not cheaper to import. [3]

Another reason is the decline of manufacturing in the USA; people think that a ‘service economy’ is the final stage in evolution and that manufacturing can be sent offshore.  我们必须把奥利弗·怀特的智慧运用到这种思维模式上.  奥利说过,当生产基地离开后, the people who clean swimming pools and run dry cleaning shops will not have a lot to do!   The message is to protect and expand domestic manufacturing; the strategic goal should be the support of supply chain autarky.

所以,问题是“我们如何为变化的环境做准备。?“这是战略性的, tactical and operational measures that can prepare the manufacturing organization for tomorrow.

战略.  A strategic decision should be made to ensure that onshoring trumps any short-term gains by sourcing offshore.  事实上, the short-term gains will prove to be an illusion with the disruption of the global supply chain.  This strategic decision should be supported by two cross-functional planning teams – “Murphy” Team 1, planning for disaster; “Murphy” Team 2, 计划卓越的成功.  在战略上, supply chain is not the single purview of “Purchasing”; a wide range of inputs into both teams will mediate failure and enhance success.  数字上升,数字下降, that is life and that prevents any form of deterministic forecasting from being a reliable tool; that is the reason for the wide experience necessary in the Murphy Teams. [4]

A significant part of the future business model is to ensure that not only does your organization buy domestically but that domestic buyers purchase their products from you!  To ‘convert’ an overseas buyer to a domestic buyer there are a number of steps that must be part of the organizational strategy:

  • 声誉.  Over the past few years there have been several organizations have suffered from the consequences of a poor reputation.  Corporate Social Responsibility is an area often neglected at the strategi level – to the detriment of the organization.
  • 交货-准时,价格,数量和质量.  The APICS [ASCM] concept of the “Perfect Order” is a guide to achieving these goals.
  • 对未来的信心.  Business Continuity Management and Disaster Recovery are essential sea-marks in creating confidence in future relationships.
    • Supported by internationally recognized certifications such as the ISO series f standards.

战术.  The overwhelming tactical approach should be partnership with the suppliers.  An important initial step should be the resolution to eliminate the AP/AR cascade; timely payment of invoices will eliminate ‘just in case’ costs in the supply chain and engender an atmosphere of trust and partnership. 

时间栏纪律, coupled with a realistic Master Production Schedule and a stochastic approach to forecasting, 是否会减少供应链中的不确定性.  The MEP 连通 database – free if your organization signs up by my birthday [5] -提供成千上万的潜在供应商和客户的渠道. [6]  An important emerging tool is the concept of the ‘供应链 Tower’. The 供应链 Tower utilizes data technology to provide ‘end-to-end’ visibility of the supply chain.  

如果您的组织必须导入,那么考虑C-TPAT认证.[7] C-TPAT will help protect your supply chain against disruptions caused by terrorism.

操作.  There are many steps that should be taken at the operational level but the most important is to ensure accurate data – Bills of Material, 库存和临界容量.  Without this level of certainty, no organization can know exactly where they are situated.  错误的数据会导致恐慌性抢购, which will bring the whole edifice tumbling down and lumber the organization with excess, 和昂贵的, 库存, 一旦局势稳定下来.  《manbetx万博全站app下载》的惨败就是一个及时的例子! 

The message to be read from this current situation is that the only permanent thing is change. [8]

来自拉迪亚德·吉卜林的《manbetx万博全站app下载》

              “如果你能保持头脑清醒的话

              当你周围的人都失去他们的爱

当然, 愤世嫉俗的人可以修改这几行来读, “如果你能保持头脑清醒的话, when all about you are losing theirs then you don’t understand the problem!”

The moral is that the situation cannot be ignored and ‘hope it will go away’; the ostrich in the sand approach never works! 合理的执行, 着眼于可持续发展, will take command and steer the business ship into calmer [and shallower, 本地)水域.


[1] 《ManBet手机客户端》,《manbetx万博全站app下载》,10/2/2021

[2] The myth of ‘One Country, Two Systems’ has been proven to be false by the conflicts in Hong Kong.

[3] 一个典型的例子是“Tonka Mighty Dump Trucks”, transportation costs to get them shipped to the USA is now 40% of the retail price.  That does not include the cost of transporting the product from the U.S. 港口向零售商.  资料来源:圣路易斯邮政快讯,10/10/2021.

[4] Murphy’s law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”

[5] 10/30/2021

[6] 欲了解更多信息,请联系密苏里企业公司的Jeff Wilkens

[7] 海关-贸易伙伴关系打击恐怖主义

[8] 伊曼努尔康德


2021年10月14日

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